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JL MAG Rare-earth Industry Price Briefing 2425（Issue No.517）07-22~07-26

Week 30，2024

1.    重要新闻简报Briefing of Important News

本周稀土市场行情，镨钕价格出现微弱上涨，镝铁合金与金属铽价格出现下跌，金属钕价格维持不变。亚洲金属网周末价格: 镨钕金属价格445-450元/KG；金属钕价格443-453元/KG；镝铁合金价格1590-1610元/KG；金属铽价格6100-6300元/KG。 

This week, the rare earth market saw a slight increase in the price of PrNd, the prices of DyFe alloy and Tb showed a slight decline, while the price of Nd metal remained unchanged. Asian Metal at this weekend presented: PrNd metal 445-450 RMB/KG; Nd metal 443-453 RMB/KG; DyFe alloy 1590-1610 RMB/KG; Tb metal 6100-6300 RMB/KG.

2.     业内人士分析Analysis of Professional Insiders

本周（7.22-26日）主流稀土价格缓慢上扬，但迫于当前不高的预期及采购价格，上扬势头于周五出现瓶颈。后市预测弱涨趋稳：因需求在八月的释放并不完全，短期的回落也由于坚挺的原料成本而难以实现，向上的概率增大，但单纯的需求提振效果较小，不排除大企的领头作用影响。

This week (July 22-26), mainstream rare earth prices slowly rose, but due to current low expectations and procurement prices, the upward trend reached a bottleneck on Friday. Market forecast for weak rise and stabilization: Due to incomplete release of demand in August, short-term decline is also difficult to achieve because of strong raw material costs, the probability of upward growth increases, but the effect of simply boosting demand is relatively small, and the leading role of large enterprises cannot be ruled out.

金属市场双向承压，虽有减产现象但较之氧化物其供需杠杆更显不平衡，加之下游采购力度并未集中爆发，其涨势弱于氧化物，成交量虽有改善但对成交价格提振不大。

The metal market is under two-way pressure, although there is a reduction in production, its supply and demand leverage is more unbalanced than that of oxides. In addition, downstream procurement efforts have not concentrated, and its upward trend is weaker than that of oxides. Although the trading volume has improved, it has not greatly boosted the trading price.

本轮涨势的支点在于上游分离厂原矿及废料高居不下，加上氧化物倒挂，部分减产导致可买现货库存收紧，利用成交回暖顺势涨价是一直以来稀土交易惯用伎俩，不过下游基于预接订单仍是“淡季”，对涨价接受度较低，月末采购较之前虽有观望但低价仍显频繁，交易量相对分散。故，并未出现采购集中峰值，多有观望试探极为理性，这也造成此次涨幅度较窄。此外，尽管下游需求稳定，但上游供给仍显充足，轻重俩家龙头对供给的掌控力度不断加强，趋稳信号越来越强，贸易企业交易变难，这也是价格较稳的另一原因。

The fulcrum of this round of upward trend lies in the high levels of raw ore and waste from upstream separation plants, coupled with the inversion of oxides, which has led to a tightening of available spot inventory due to partial production cuts. Taking advantage of the rebound in transactions to raise prices has always been a common tactic in rare earth trading. However, downstream buyers still have a low acceptance of price increases due to the fact that pre orders are still a "weak season", and although they are cautious about purchasing at the end of the month compared to before, low prices still appear frequently, resulting in relatively scattered trading volume. Therefore, there was no peak in procurement concentration, and it was very rational to observe and explore, which also resulted in a relatively narrow increase this time. In addition, although downstream demand is stable, upstream supply is still sufficient. The control of supply by the two leading companies, light and heavy, continues to strengthen, and the signal of stabilization is becoming stronger. Trading enterprises are facing difficulties in transactions, which is another reason for the relatively stable prices.

短期来看上扬支撑不足但下探风险很小，趋稳的概率增大。（瑞道稀土资讯）

In the short term, the upward support is insufficient, but the downside risk is small, and the probability of stabilizing increases. (Ruidao Rare Earth Information)

3.    趋势图（参考亚洲金属网）Tendency Chart (refer to Asian Metal)

2024年07月26日

July 26^th, 2024